Dorset Children and Young People 2024

Information about children and young people:

• Dorset has almost 88,000111,945 0 to 24 year olds. This makes up just under a quarter of Dorset residents. The population has decreased by about 6,000 since 2011, an estimate predict this trend will continue
• the percentage of children eligible for free school meals has been increasing. Some areas of Dorset have high deprivation, and overall, 11% of under 16s live in low-income families
• Dorset has some unique environmental features which makes it a special place. However, greenspace access is not equitable. About 6,500 0 to 15 year olds live in overcrowded households
• in Dorset, CYP generally achieve well. The percentage of young people not in education, employment or training continues to improve. Pupil absence remains high post-pandemic
• generally, the health behaviours of our CYP compare favourably to England. We do see variation - activity levels are lowest for Years 3 to 4, and some areas see higher rates of obesity
• nationally 1 in 6 children are estimated to have a mental health disorder. We have seen an increase in SEN pupils with social, emotional and mental health as their primary need
• hospital admission rates for CORE20Plus5 conditions have been improving. However, some have increased in the last 2 years. Children in care are identified as a priority group for oral health
• breastfeeding rates and mothers smoking at time of delivery have continued to improve. There may be some needs around motor skills and fine personal-social skills in young children
• some areas continue to see increasing demand for services including SEND and CAMHS. Social care referrals remain below the England average and children in need decreased in 2022/23
• health needs for consideration in future planning include: smoking and vaping, digital wellbeing, growing mental health challenges, physical fitness and obesity prevention

We want Dorset to be the best place to be a child, where communities thrive, and families are supported to be the best they can be. In Dorset area, there is a notable disparity in health and longevity; males from Cranborne and Alderholt have an average life expectancy of 84.6 years, in contrast to those from Melcombe Regis, who live almost 9 years less.

Bridging this life expectancy gap and fostering environments where our children and young people can thrive requires the right ‘building blocks’ to be in place - such as quality secure housing, good education, safe and healthy environments, and robust social connections.

These elements, termed the wider determinants of health, are crucial for maintaining our health and wellbeing. Children and young people experience huge changes as they mature into adulthood, from physical to emotional and social development, which the wider determinants can impact.

For example, living in poor quality housing can mean that there are hazards or poor heating/insulation which can lead to damp and mould problems. Exposure to hazards at home increases the risks of accidents and injuries whilst damp and mould can impact respiratory conditions.

As well as the physical quality of housing, insecurity and homelessness can have physical and mental health impacts. Insecure housing can adversely impact or disrupt education and training for example.

Organisations within health and care systems, such as Local Authorities, the NHS and VCSE can work together to address these building blocks of health and support thriving communities.

Figure 1: General socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental conditions - Dahlgren and Whitehead (1991)

This image is of a diagram presenting the social determinants of health, structured in concentric circles. The centre shows 'Age, sex, and constitutional factors' with human silhouettes. Surrounding layers represent 'Individual lifestyle factors,' 'Social and community networks,' and 'General socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental conditions,' including elements like education, housing, and healthcare. Source: Dahlgren and Whitehead (1991).

Percentage insights from Dorset Youth Voice X Survey 2022:

• 59.8% agreed that they take an active role in their community
• 57.7% agreed that they feel like they belong in their community
• 42% feel they are not taken seriously

Words from survey:

• beautiful
• fun
• friendly
• boring
• peaceful
• quiet
• exciting
• nature
• sad
• good
• entertaining
• countryside
• animals
• happy
• busy
• historical
• bad
• annoying
• cool
• inclusive
• homely
• young
• isolated
• sunny
• scart
• home
• lovely
• people
• green
• loud

Statements from CYP Plan 2023 to 2033:

• Dorset's children and young people aspire to live, learn and grow in places where people are kind, honest and where they feel safe and belong
• young people are concerned about how prepared they are for work and wider adult life

Statement from Lets Talk Libraries consultation:

• children and young people would like welcoming, fun and inclusive library spaces

Just under a quarter (23.2%) of Dorset’s residents are children and young people (0 to 24). The population has decreased by about 6,600 people since 2011 – the changing age profile of the population is shown below. Population projections estimate that this decrease will continue based on previous trends in fertility and migration.

Table 1: Population of children and young people in Dorset by age band (2021 Census)

Figure 2: 2011 Census of Dorset population

This image of the 2011 Census graph shows population distribution by age and gender. The total population is 51.14% female and 48.86% male. Age groups range from '4 and under' to '85 and over,' with corresponding counts for each gender. For example, in the 85 and over group, there are 8,848 females and 4,721 males; in the 65 to 69 group, 12,998 females and 12,155 males. 

Figure 3: 2021 Census of Dorset population

This image of the 2021 Census graph shows population distribution by age and gender. The total population is 51.14% female and 48.86% male. Age groups range from '4 and under' to '85 and over,' with corresponding counts for each gender. For example, in the 85 and over group, there are 8,848 females and 4,721 males; in the 65 to 69 group, 12,998 females and 12,155 males. 

 
22% of households in Dorset have dependent children living in the household, with the majority being single family households. 1.6% are multiple family households with dependent children.

English is the main language in Dorset, however there are over 80 languages spoken across Dorset. The most common languages spoken are English, Polish, Romanian, Nepalese and Bulgarian.

Nearly 8% of children and young people are from ethnic minorities, slightly higher than the whole population of Dorset at 6.1%.

Find out more about population data using the Census maps: Household composition - Census Maps, ONS.

Just over 15% of people in Dorset are aged under 15 – the Census map below shows where they live. We have higher proportions of children in South and Central Dorset, around towns in North Dorset and in several areas of Purbeck and East Dorset. The beautiful landscapes and areas of Dorset can conceal hidden challenges – there are some significant areas of deprivation.

Figure 4: Dorset population map

This image of a map of Dorset shows the percentage of people and their age across different areas. A colour gradient from light green to dark blue represents percentage ranges from 1.4% to 38.9%. It highlights that 15.2% of people in Dorset are aged 15 years and under.

When we compare this with our deprivation map, there are areas of higher deprivation, and higher proportions of children in Weymouth and Portland, parts of Dorchester, Sherborne and Shaftesbury, and in Purbeck around the Wool/Bovington area.

Deprivation refers to unmet needs caused by a lack of resources, not just financial. Deprivation can have far-reaching effects on the health of children and young people, examples include increased risk of illness, chronic conditions in adulthood, lower quality nutrition, mental health impacts and insecure housing.

Figure 5: Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IMD and Domains) for Dorset

This image of a map of Dorset shows the Index of Multiple Deprivation by area, using a colour scale from red (most deprived, decile 1) to blue (least deprived, decile 10). The map includes filters for Local Authority and Clinical Commissioning Group locality. Data is sourced from the English Indices of Deprivation 2019, created by the Dorset Council Public Health Intelligence Team.

The UK's cost of living crisis, which began escalating in late 2021, has been characterised by a persistent rise in inflation outpacing wage and benefit growth, leading to reduced real disposable incomes. There is evidence that childhood poverty leads to premature death and poor health outcomes in adulthood. There is also evidence to show that children who live in poverty are exposed to risks that can have an impact on their mental health. 11.3% of under 16s in 2022/23 live in low-income families (low income before housing costs).

What are the trends?

Children in state-funded schools are entitled to free school meals if a parent or carer has a low income and is in receipt of income related benefits such as universal credit. The proportion of free school meal eligible pupils has been increasing in Dorset- from 15.4% in 2019/20 to 19.6% in 2022/23.

Figure 6: Percentage of pupils eligible for free school meals

This line graph shows percentage trends from 2014/15 to 2022/23 for England and Dorset. The x-axis represents years, and the y-axis shows percentages from 0 to 30%. England is represented by a black line with black dots, and Dorset by a blue line with green dots. Both England and Dorset show an upward trend from 2019/20 and by 2022/23, England’s percentage is higher than Dorset’s.

Where are the areas of need?

The Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) 2019 measures the proportion of all children aged 0 to 15 living in income deprived households. The map below shows the areas of Dorset where there are higher proportions of children experiencing income deprivation; areas in the 20% most deprived quintile include:

• parts of Weymouth and Portland
• Beaminster South
• Sherborne East Gryphon
• Ferndown Tricketts Cross East

Figure 7: Indices of Deprivation 2019 map

This image of a map of Dorset shows deprivation levels by area using the National Decile scale, where red indicates the most deprived areas (decile 1) and blue the least deprived (decile 10). Data is sourced from the English Indices of Deprivation 2019 and maintained by the Dorset Council Public Health Intelligence Team.

In the 2021 Census, 57% of residents aged 0 to 24 lived in owned households and 43% in rented households.

Housing issues that can impact children and young people’s health include overcrowding, poor housing conditions and non-decent homes. National research finds that more than 1 in 10 children living in non-decent housing in England.

In Dorset, children and young people with ‘not good’ health is similar between owned and rented households, slightly higher in social rented accommodation.

Table 2: Percentage of children and young people (CYP) in good and not good health by household tenure in Dorset

What are the trends?

Homelessness is affecting an increasing number of households with dependent children. In 2019/20 the rate of households with children at risk of homeless ness was 12.1 per 1000 households. This has increased to 14.3 per 1000 in 2022/23.

Figure 8: Homelessness - households with dependent children owed a duty under the Homelessness Reduction Act

This line graph compares rates per 1,000 between England and Dorset from 2019/20 to 2022/23. England is represented by a black line and Dorset by a blue line. Both regions show a dip in 2020/21 followed by an upward trend. England’s rates are consistently higher than Dorset’s across all years.

Where are the areas of need?

Eleven percent of 0 to 15-year-olds live in overcrowded households, approximately 6,500 children (Census 2021). This varies across Dorset with the highest rates of children living in overcrowded households including:

• Melcombe Regis (29% of children)
• Portland (19%)
• Littlemoor and Preston (18%)
• Westham (18%)

In the 2021 Census, 15.4% of people aged 5 and above were full-time students. Our children and young people have a right to good education and education is crucial for economic growth, health and wellbeing and is a driver of social mobility.

In Dorset, children and young people generally achieve well, however there are some differences. Whilst 67.5% achieve a good level of development at the end of reception, children eligible for free school meals, and children from ethnic minorities do less well.

Differences remain at Key Stage 4, with children in care having a much lower attainment 8 score (14.6) than other pupils (44.7).

What are the trends?

Dorset is in the lowest 20% of local authorities for combined Reading, writing and mathematics at the expected standard at Key Stage 2 (54% of pupils achieved).

Figure 9: Percentage of pupils meeting the expected standard at the end of Key Stage 2 in reading, writing and mathematics (from 2021/22 (academic) to 2024/25 (academic)) for Dorset

This bar chart shows the percentage of pupils meeting the expected standard in reading, writing, and maths at the end of Key Stage 2 from 2017/18 to 2022/23 in Dorset, compared with the mean for all English unitary authorities. Light blue bars represent the national mean, and dark blue bars represent Dorset. Source: Department for Education, powered by LG Inform.

The percentage of young people who are not in education, employment and training (NEET) continues to improve (3.8% of 16 to 17-year-olds).

Rates of pupil absence remain high following the pandemic and are above the England average. In 2021/22 17% of primary school pupils and 29.5% of secondary pupils were persistently absent. This is a trend being seen across the UK, and is influenced by several factors, including; mental health issues, shifting attitudes towards physical attendance, social anxiety, financial pressures, challenges supporting return to school following the pandemic.

Figure 10: Pupil absence (% of sessions missed in the academic year)

This line graph shows percentage trends from 2010/11 to 2022/23 across England (black line) and Dorset (blue line). The x-axis represents years, and the y-axis shows percentages. England and Dorset show fluctuations over time, with a noticeable increase around 2022/23.

Nationally, there has been a growing preference among parents for home education, which could be influenced by many factors such flexibility and personalisation, or the impact of COVID-19. Elective home education does not include children unable to attend school because of illness, or children missing education. 600 Dorset children were receiving home education in the autumn term of 2023/24, compared to 500 children the year before.

Where are the areas of need?

The IMD Education, Skills and Training domain looks at the lack of attainment and skills in the local population. The map below shows the areas of Dorset where there are higher proportions of education related deprivation; areas in the 20% most deprived quintile include:

• parts of Weymouth and Portland
• Bridport
• Beaminster
• Sherborne (East Gryphon)
• Gillingham (Lodborne)
• Portman
• Verwood and Three Legged Cross
• Ferndown (Tricketts Cross East)
• Wimborne (Leigh Park)
• Upton Wood
• Bovington Camp

Figure 11: Education, skills and training deprivation (2019) for Dorset

This image of a map of Dorset shows rankings and deciles for education, skills, and training deprivation. Areas are colour-coded from red (most deprived, ranking 1) to blue (least deprived, ranking 10). The map is divided into areas, each shaded according to its ranking.

Data source: English Indices of Deprivation 2019, Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government.

Dorset has some unique features that makes it a special place for both residents and visitors – areas of outstanding beauty, heathlands and the Jurassic Coast.

The environment we live in has important influence on our lives – there are several aspects that can affect our health. Exposure to air pollution can lead to respiratory issues, climate change can exacerbate health inequalities and limited access to greenspace can impact physical and mental health.

What are the trends?

The concentration of Particulate Matter (2.5) has been decreasing since 2019. PM2.5 refers to fine matter in the air, smaller than 2.5 micrometres, that is composed of various substances such as dust, dirt, soot, smoke and liquid droplets.

Figure 12: Air pollution concentrations of total PM2.5 for Dorset

This line graph shows annual average air pollutant concentration (µg/m³) from 2018 to 2022 for England (black line with black circles) and Dorset (blue line with grey circles). Dorset’s values begin near 7 µg/m³ and steadily decrease to about 5 µg/m³ by 2022, indicating improving air quality.

Where are the areas of need?

Spending time in greenspace is good for our health and wellbeing – it’s important that we have greenspace close by so that we can incorporate it into everyday life. In Dorset access is not equitable distributed - 49% of people in Dorset live more than about 3.5-minute walk from a space approaching the size of a football field. This is an estimate of the size of space likely to be usable for physical activity and access to nature. Gaps in access are see in parts of East and Mid Dorset, which have higher proportions of children aged 15 and under (as seen on the deprivation page).

Figure 13: Access to greenspace of 0.5 hectares within 300 metres map

This image of a map of the Dorset Council area shows locations in varying tones of pink/purple to represent the percentage of population within 300m walk of a greenspace. Lighter pink/purple represents less than 20% of population within 300m walk of a greenspace, whereas the darkest pink/purple represents more than 81% of population within 300m of a greenspace. The colour legend for this map includes: less than 20% (pale pink/purple), 21% to 40% (light pink/purple), 41% to 60% (mid pink/purple), 61% to 80% (medium pink/purple) and more than 81% (dark pink/purple).

Generally, most children and young people experience good health and thrive. Health behaviours are things we do that can affect our health – some things we do help us to stay healthy while others may have a negative impact on health. Our behaviours and lifestyles can be influenced by many things – as seen in the first section of this report.

The Health Behaviour in School Age Children (HSBC) study in England found that while nearly 80% of young people rated their health as good, this was a marked decline from 2018. The majority of young people in the study reported having difficulties in one or more areas that included; lack of proper sleep, nutrition, exercise and mental health. They also found inequalities – for example fruit and vegetable consumption demonstrated stark family affluence disparities.

We can support our children to thrive through prevention and early help opportunities - there are many benefits for people who have the tools and support to live and stay well. For those with a condition, introducing support at an earlier stage can help prevent it from worsening and help children, young people and families to feel more looked after. As children grow and develop, they may need different kinds of support.

This section sets out some of the key health behaviour and health issues experienced by children and young people in Dorset.

Insights from a Dorset Youth, Voice X Survey 2022, of 371 9 to 25 year olds:

• 92% feel always or sometimes happy
• 76% feel always or sometimes confident
• 32% enjoyed spending more time with family during the pandemic
• 29% enjoyed spending more time outdoors
• feeling tired, stressed or bored were some of the common feelings currently
• the top 3 topics that are important to young people: mental health, social media and body image

Feedback given during the 100 Conversations project:

• support within schools - "I think the school, it was quite good because if there was points when I was feeling down, I'd head up there and knock on the door and say, can I speak to you at some point today?"
• "The after effect of that [Covid], is that their mental health and their wellbeing, a lot of kids have suffered massively... We're talking about like 8, 10, 12 year old kids have got anxiety or stress"

Being physically active offers numerous benefits for children and young people, which contributes to their overall health and development. This includes cognitive and social benefits alongside improvements to their physical and mental health. Encouraging physical activity from a young age helps establish healthy habits that can continue into adulthood and reduce the risk of chronic health conditions. The recommended level of activity for children is 60 minutes a day.

Nationally activity levels dropped during the pandemic but have generally recovered since.

What are the trends?

In Dorset, 55% of children are meeting the activity recommendations, and this has improved on pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a significant proportion (22% pan-Dorset) who are less active (29 minutes or less a day). Activity levels are lowest for some of our youngest children (Years 3 to 4), and activity levels drop as secondary school children get older. Children with SEND or long-term health conditions are more likely to be less active than children without SEND or a long-term condition.

Figure 14: Percentage of physically active children and young people for Dorset

This line graph shows percentage trends from 2017/18 to 2022/23 for England and Dorset. England is represented by a black line with black circles, and Dorset by a blue line with yellow and green circles. The graph shows fluctuations over time, with Dorset’s percentage highlighted at 54.8% in 2022/23.

Where are the areas of need?

Children from the most affluent families are 21% more likely to be active compared to children from the least affluent families. The diagram below shows activity levels for our county – please refer to the income map for areas of highest need.

Figure 15 Activity levels by family affluence

This infographic shows the relationship between family affluence and activity levels. High family affluence is associated with 55.7% being active and 24.1% less active. Medium affluence shows 52.6% active and 24.8% less active. Low affluence shows 34.1% active and 46% less active, indicating a correlation between lower affluence and reduced physical activity.

Obesity in children can have serious and long-term consequences on their physical health, mental health and overall quality of life. It is estimated, if nothing is done, the proportion of overweight 11 year olds in England will reach 40% by 2040. Locally, preventing childhood obesity is a key ambition to support our children to thrive.

There is a complex interaction of factors that can influence a child’s weight including; diet, physical activity, parental weight and behaviours, genetics, socioeconomic and environmental circumstances.

What are the trends?

The National Child Measurement Programme measures the height and weight of children at Reception and Year 6. In 2022/23 almost 1 in 5 pupils in reception were overweight or obese and this increased to nearly 1 in 3 pupils in Year 6. Whilst this is similar (Reception) and better (Year 6) than the England average, this is still a significant number of children experiencing excess weight.

Figure 16: Reception prevalence of overweight (including obesity) (4 to 5 years)

This line graph shows percentage trends from 2006/07 to 2021/22 for England and Dorset. England is represented by a black line with black circles, and Dorset by a blue line with green and yellow circles. The x-axis represents years, and the y-axis shows percentages.

The trends in children’s weight at Reception has remained relatively stable over time – fluctuating around 20 to 23%, with no significant change in trend over the last 5 years. The trend in Year 6 is consistently below that of the England average. However, like at reception there has been no significant change in the trend over the last 5 years of data.

Figure 17: Year 6 prevalence of overweight (including obesity) (10 to 11 years)

This line graph shows percentage trends from 2006/07 to 2021/22 for England represented by a black line with black circles and Dorset by a blue line with green circles. The x-axis represents years, and the y-axis shows percentages. 

What are the areas of need?

In most areas the prevalence of overweight (including obesity) is comparable to, or better than, the England average.

The charts below show that in 2020/21 to 2022/23 some areas have higher rates. Southwell and Weston has the highest proportion of children who are overweight in reception (above England). Underhill and the Grove has the highest proportion of Year 6 children who are overweight, and this is also higher than England.

Figure 18: Reception prevalence of overweight (including obesity), 3 years data combined

This bar chart shows percentages of overweight children in Reception across various areas in Dorset. Blue bars represent each area's percentage. A red line marks the national average for England. The y-axis ranges from 0% to 40% with the x-axis showing all the different areas. A note explains that 2020/21 NCMP data is excluded and some data are suppressed for disclosure control.

Figure 19: Year 6 prevalence of overweight (including obesity), 3 years data combined

This bar chart shows percentages of overweight children in Year 6 across various areas in Dorset. Blue bars represent each area's percentage. A red line marks the national average for England. The y-axis ranges from 0% to 60%, and the x-axis lists all the areas.

Children need the right foods at the right time to grow and develop to their full potential. The most critical time for good nutrition is during the 1,001-day period from pregnancy until a child’s second birthday​. Meeting children’s nutrient needs in early life can be challenging, and many parents face barriers to securing enough nutritious, safe, affordable and age-appropriate food for their children​. Poor diets in early childhood can lead to deficiencies in essential vitamins and nutrients such as vitamin A deficiency, which weakens children’s immunity​.

What are the trends?

Between May 2022 and April 2024, 78% of babies had a first feed of breast milk pan-Dorset. Breastfeeding rates have been increasing locally, in most recent year over 50% of babies being breastfed at 6-8 weeks, higher than the England average [see figure below]. Across the Dorset area, Chesil reach area has significantly lower breastfeeding rates that other areas in Dorset Local Authority.

Figure 20: Percentage of infants being breastfed at 6 to 8 weeks

This line graph shows the percentage of infants being breastfed at 6 to 8 weeks in Dorset compared to England, between Quarter 1 2019/20 to Quarter 1 2024/25. The y-axis ranges from 20% to 60% and the x-axis shows the quarters and dates. A green line represents Dorset’s indicator percentage, and a black line shows the England benchmark. 

Young children’s diets are frequently comprised of grains with little fruit, vegetables, eggs, dairy, fish or meat. Many are increasingly being fed sugary drinks and packaged snacks high in salt, sugar and fat​. The National diet and Nutrition survey found consumption of fruit and vegetables was below the 5 a day recommendation across all age groups. Children aged 11 to 18 ate a mean 2.8 portions of fruit or vegetables a day (2020 – data may have been affected by the COVID pandemic). Mean intakes of saturated fats and free sugars exceeded maximum recommendations.

Figure 21: Percentage of adults meeting the '5-a-day' fruit and vegetable consumption recommendations (new method) for Dorset

This line graph shows the percentage of adults meeting the 5-a-day fruit and vegetable consumption recommendations for Dorset between 2020/21 to 2022/23. England’s line (black) remains steady around 30%, while Dorset’s line (blue) starts at 42% in 2020/21 and declines to 37% by 2022/23, indicating a downward trend in Dorset’s adherence to the guidelines.

What are the areas of need?

Families' ability to afford healthy food is a key factor in the nutritional quality of their diets and contributes to the differences in dietary health between the most and least deprived people. A national food insecurity tracker found that 13.6% of all households experienced moderate to severe food insecurity in June 2024. This had decreased from 18.4% about a year previously but is still as high as the first 2 weeks of lockdown in early 2020. Mapping produced by Our Dorset (below) highlights some of the areas in Dorset where there is higher risk of food poverty.

Figure 22: Areas at risk of food poverty - median score

This image of a map of Dorset shows food poverty risk by area, using a colour gradient from light yellow (lowest risk, score 1) to dark red (highest risk, score 4 to 5). The map displays the overall median score of food poverty risk across areas, helping identify regions most affected by food insecurity. The colour legend for this map includes: 4 to 5 (red), 3 to 4 (dark orange), 2 to 3 (light orange), 1 to 2 (pale orange) and 1 to 1 (pale yellow).

Having good emotional health and wellbeing is important for children and young people’s overall development and long-term mental health. The increasing prevalence and presentation of mental health issues is a key national issue in both adults and children. The possible factors behind the increase in children is a complex picture – the COVID pandemic, with isolation and disruption has had an impact, changing lifestyles alongside the rise of social media which can lead to stress and anxiety. There is also growing awareness and reducing stigma around mental health which leads to more people seeking help. Nationally, it is estimated 1 in 6 children aged 7 to 16 have a mental health disorder, rising to 1 in 4 at 17 to 19 years.

What are the trends?

The mental health of children is a priority – the rate of hospital admissions are worse than England for both admissions for self-harm and admissions for mental health conditions. Admissions because of self-harm have reduced from the high seen in 2019/20 and are following a similar trend to England, when previously local rates had been rising.

Figure 23: Hospital admissions as a result of self-harm (10 to 24 years)

This line graph shows hospital admissions as a result of self-harm (young people aged 10 to 24 years) in rates per 100,000 from 2011/12 to 2021/22 for England (black line with black dots) and Dorset (blue line with red and yellow dots). Dorset consistently shows higher rates than England across most years.

Figure 24: hospital admissions for mental health conditions (less than 18 years)

This line graph shows hospital admissions for mental health conditions (young people less than 18 years) in rates per 100,000 from 2010/11 to 2022/23 for England (black line and circles) and Dorset (blue line and red and yellow circles). Dorset shows a sharp peak around 2013/14, reaching nearly 300 per 100,000, while England’s rate remains relatively stable across the years.

What are the areas of need?

Although no one is immune from poor mental health, some children and young people are more likely to need help than others. National research identifies the following cohorts:

• experience some form of adversity e.g. living in poverty, parental separation or financial crisis
• young people who identify as LGBQT
• looked after children
• children who have been sentenced
• children with learning or physical disabilities

Although improved from 2019/20, the proportion of looked after children (aged 5 to 16) who are affected by poor emotional wellbeing remains above the England average.

Figure 25: Percentage of looked after children whose emotional wellbeing is a cause for concern

This line graph compares percentage values of looked after children whose emotional wellbeing is a cause for concern from 2014/15 to 2022/23 for England and Dorset. England’s data (black line with black dots) remains stable around 40%, while Dorset’s data (blue line with red dots) starts higher at around 60% in 2019/20, then declines and stabilises near 50%.

We have seen an increase in pupils with social, emotional and mental health as their primary SEN need (expressed as a percentage of all pupils), in line with England increases.

Figure 26: Percentage of school pupils with social, emotional and mental health (identified as their SEN primary need)

This line graph shows percentage trends of school pupils with social, emotional and mental from 2015/16 to 2021/22 for England (black line with black circles) and Dorset (blue line with yellow and green circles). The y-axis ranges from 0% to 4% and the y-axis shows the years. 

Smoking is a leading cause of preventable illness and death – it’s associated with numerous health issues. Data from the last 5 years shows most smokers want to quit, but cannot due to nicotine addiction which started in their teens. Over 80% of current smokers started before the turned 20.

Alcohol consumption in young people can interfere with development, increase the risk of accidents or injuries. Early alcohol use is associated with other risky behaviours.

What are the trends?

There is limited local data available on smoking, vaping and alcohol use in children and young people. The England Health in School-aged children study found:

• between 2018 and 2022 there was an increase in young people drinking regularly. Older girls and those from the most affluent families reported drinking more often
• cigarette smoking remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2022. Regular vaping was around three times as prevalent (10% vs 3%). Older girls from the least affluent families were more likely to smoke and vape regularly
• a more recent study in 2023 found 20.5% of children had tried vaping which had increased from 13.9% in 2020

Young people being admitted to hospital due to substance misuse has been reducing, with the latest rate being 57 per 100,000, from a high of 94.7 per 100,000.

Figure 27: Hospital admissions due to substance misuse (15 to 24 years)

This line graph shows hospital admissions due to substance misuse in rate per 100,000 from 2008/09 to 2022/23 for England (black line with black circles) and Dorset (blue line with yellow and green circles for 2011/12 to 13/14). The y-axis ranges from 0 to 100 per 100,000 and the x-axis represents the year. Both regions show an upward trend until around 2014/15, followed by fluctuations and a general decline. 

Smoking in the home

Smoking in the home is a major cause of exposure to second-hand smoke. For infants and children exposure to second-hand smoke can increase the risk of respiratory issues. Children who grow up in smoke-free homes are less likely to start smoking themselves.

One key support point is during pregnancy – encouraging women to stop smoking during pregnancy can help them kick the habit for good and reduces exposure to second-hand smoke for the child. Our smoking rates during pregnancy have been reducing, and are now below 10%.

Figure 28: Smoking status at time of delivery

This line graph shows percentage trends for smoking status at time of delivery from 2010/11 to 2022/23 for England (black line with black circles) and Dorset (blue line with red and yellow circles). The y-axis ranges from 0 to 20% and the x-axis shows the year. Both regions show a general downward trend over time, with Dorset’s data fluctuating more noticeably and highlighted with coloured markers.

The Core20PLUS5 is a national NHS initiative aimed at reducing health inequalities in children. It focuses on the most deprived 20% of the population and includes additional groups experiencing poor health outcomes. The 5 clinical areas of focus for children are asthma, diabetes, epilepsy, oral health and mental health.

What are the trends?

The trends are:

• the prevalence of asthma in Dorset (people aged 6 and over) has increased slightly from 7.8% in 2020/21 to 8.2% in 2022/23. Hospital admissions for asthma were decreasing but have increased in the 2 most recent years data (following the England trend)
• hospital admissions for diabetes under 19 years are above the England average at 71.3 per 100,000 in Dorset. This is slightly lower than pre-covid levels, which were showing an increasing trend
• increasing numbers of children and adolescents being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, and they have worse outcomes than type 1 diabetics. 7% of diabetics aged 24 or under are type 2 [DiiS]. There is a national focus on early onset type 2 diabetes, which traditionally was diagnosed in later life (45 and over, increasing with age). Overweight, ethnicity and deprivation all increase risk of type 2, and of early type 2. More info at NHS England » Children and young people diabetes toolkit
• admissions for epilepsy in under 19’s has been relatively stable historically but increased in the previous 2 years data in Dorset. This does not follow the England trend

Figure 29: Admissions for epilepsy (under 19 years)

This line graph shows the rate per 100,000 of admissions for epilepsy for England (black line with black circles) and Dorset (blue line with yellow and red circles) from 2010/11 to 2022/23. The x-axis represents the years, while the y-axis represents the rate per 100,000. 

What are the areas of need?

• we see variation in admissions to hospital for asthma by PCN [see table below]
• oral health - children in care are identified as a priority group, and plans are in development to improve access for this group. In Dorset, 60.7% of children in care for at least 12 months had their teeth checked by a dentist (2022/23)

Table 3: Admissions for asthma (under 19 years) by PCN, 3 years combined

Source: Office for Health Improvement and Disparities

Many organisations across our health and social care system are working to support our children, young people and families to thrive and experience better health outcomes. This section highlights some of the statutory and key milestones of support for children and young people such as maternity services, health visiting and social care.

The Integrated Care Partnership Strategy “Working Better Together” sets out how the NHS, Councils and other Integrated Care Services work together to make the best possibly improvements in the health and wellbeing of local people and tackle health inequalities.

We know that there is increasing demand for many services, and that the needs of children, young people and families can be complex. The figure below shows some of the health and wellbeing concerns raised by professionals, and some of the local strategies addressing these:

• Dorset Children, Young People and Families Plan 2023 to 2033
• Dorset Children Thrive
• Families First for Children Pathfinder
• Local Maternity and Neonatal System Dorset Equity and Equality Plan
• Working Better Together - ICP
• Your mind, your say
• All Age Neurodevelopmental Review
• Joint Forward Plan - Healthy Weight
• Infant Feeding and Child Nutrition Strategy

We want all children in Dorset to have the best start in life. A healthy pregnancy sets up the unborn baby for a healthy life. The Local Maternity and Neonatal System (LMNS) have undertaken a health equality audit and identified the following priorities:

• continue to reduce smoking cessation
• focus on health prevention behaviours pre-conception and during pregnancy
• support families experiencing perinatal mental health issues

What are the trends?

In 2022, there were 2,615 live births. The number of births has been declining, reflected by the general fertility rate (the number of births per child-bearing age population). This has decreased from 59.6 births per 1,000 women in 2012 to 49 births per 1,000 in 2022. We have also seen the mean age of mothers increasing, as well as the proportion of deliveries to women from minority ethnic backgrounds.

Figure 30: Percentage of deliveries to women from ethnic minority backgrounds

This line graph compares the percentage of deliveries to women from ethnic minority backgrounds between England and Dorset from 2012/13 to 2022/23. The x-axis shows the years, and the y-axis shows the percentage. England is represented by a black line with black circles, showing a stable trend around 20% with a recent increase. Dorset is represented by a blue line with blue circles, showing a consistently lower percentage around 5%, ending at 4.7% in 2022/23.

There have been improvements in mothers smoking at the time of delivery locally. Smoking at time of delivery has now reduced to 9%, from a high of 17.7%.

The admissions of babies under 14 days has started to fall following the pandemic but has not yet reached pre-covid levels. Admissions soon after birth can suggest issues with either the timing or quality of health assessments, or with postnatal care once the mother is home. Dehydration and Jaundice are common reasons for re-admissions and are often linked with feeding problems.

Figure 31: Admissions of babies under 14 days

This line graph compares the rate per 1,000 between England and Dorset for admissions of babies under 14 days from 2013/14 to 2022/23. The x-axis shows the years, and the y-axis shows the rate per 1,000 (ranging from 0 to 100). England is represented by a black line with black circles, and Dorset by a blue line with green and yellow circles. Both show an overall upward trend. 

Further resources

• Child and Maternal Health - Data - OHID (phe.org.uk)
• Maternity Services Data Set

The first 1001 days of a child’s life is a unique period where the foundations for health, growth and neurodevelopment are established. To support children and families during this period, there are 5 mandated review periods, which are offered to all families pan-Dorset. Additional contacts are considered where health visitors could respond to a family’s identified needs, as shown in the figure below.

Figure 32: Health and wellbeing reviews and contacts for 0 to 5 years

This infographic shows key reviews and contacts for the first 5 years of life. It includes: 

• antenatal health promoting review: breastfeeding, safer sleep, smoke-free pregnancy, immunisation status, maternal and partner mental health
• new baby review: breastfeeding support, safer sleep, transition to parenthood, parent-child interaction, smoke-free home
• 6 to 8 week review: breastfeeding support, family mental health, immunisation status, safer sleep, communication and interaction
• 3 month contact: breastfeeding support, family mental health, immunisation status, safer sleep, communication and interaction
• 6 month contact: nutrition, weaning, home safety, safer sleep, physical activity, family mental health, speech and language communication
• 1 year review: immunisation status, nutrition, safer sleep, oral health, accident prevention, physical activity, speech and language communication
• 2/2.5 year review: immunisation status, physical activity, nutrition, oral health, accident prevention, school readiness, speech and language communication

The table below highlights some of the key intervention areas delivered during 2023, when 24,680 mandated checks were undertaken across the 0 to 5 population pan-Dorset. ParentLine is a confidential text messaging service that parents and carers can use to seek advice about a range of issues. In 2023 there were just over 3,500 conversations supported.

Table 4: Early years support pathways activity, 2023

What are the trends?

Following the COVID pandemic, health visiting continues to maintain good performance and compares well to England benchmarks across all 5 mandated contacts.

Children’s development is measured at the 2/2.5 year review using the Ages and Stages questionnaire. In Dorset, most areas of development are close to the England average. Gross motor skills and personal -social skills had the lowest levels of achievement of the 5 domains in most recent data (87.2% and 87.4% achieved expected levels respectively).

Further resources

• Child and Maternal Health - Data - OHID (phe.org.uk)

We want all children and young people to be resilient, enjoy positive emotional wellbeing and establish healthy habits to help them thrive into adulthood.

There are no mandated review points for school age children, apart from the National Child Measurement Programme in Reception and Year 6. School nurses offer support year-round in and out of school settings. At school age, suggested contacts are at key development stages or periods of transition (see figure below) such as a digital survey at school entry (4 to 5 years).

Figure 33: Health and wellbeing reviews and contacts for 5 to 24 years

This infographic shows key reviews and contacts for 5 to 24 years. It includes: 

• 4 to 5 year old health needs review: immunisation status, oral health, speech, language and communication, school readiness healthy weight
• 7 to 8 year old health needs contact: immunisation status, healthy lifestyles and healthy relationships 
• 10 to 11 year old health needs review: immunisation status, speech, language and communication, preparing for transition, healthy weight 
• 12 to 13 year old health needs review: immunisation status, mental health, sexual health, healthy relationships  
• school leavers post-16 health needs review: immunisation status, relationships, sexual health, self care, resilience
• transition to adult services: immunisation status, self-care, resilience and mental health  
• 18 to 24 year old health needs contact: signposting to adult services, transition plans for long-term conditions 

What are the trends?

The school age period covers a range of health behaviours and health outcomes - see the childhood obesity, physical activity, emotional wellbeing and immunisation pages for more detail.

In 2023, there were 1,017 request for support across Dorset and BCP (see the figure below) – with children being supported with issues such as toileting, disordered eating and sleep through to behaviour and emotional wellbeing. Additionally, through the helpline services, there were 120 Chathealth conversations and 519 Parentline conversations.

Figure 34: 1,017 support requests for Dorset

This chart shows the distribution of 1,017 support requests for children and young people (CYP) in Dorset, divided into coloured segments:

• 89 CYP supported with behaviour (purple)
• 110 with disordered eating (yellow)
• 121 with sleep issues (green)
• 251 with toileting (blue)
• 241 with emotional health and wellbeing (pink)
• 120 ChatHealth conversations
• 519 ParentLine conversations
• 195 CYP on the Enuresis caseload

Further resources

• Child and Maternal Health - Data - OHID (phe.org.uk)

Dorset Children’s Services aim to deliver a whole system approach that strengthens families’ ability to care for and support their children, with families receiving the right support at the right time so that children thrive.

Some children live in difficult family circumstances and without early help, difficulties can worsen. A system approach to prevention and early help that focuses on supporting the whole family is helpful to meet needs and reduce abuse and neglect. In Dorset, multi-disciplinary teams work in Localities, supported by a central team of specialist services working alongside them.

Families First for Children Pathfinder

Dorset has been selected as one of the initial pathfinder programme sites to ensure families are better supported. Families First for Children will implement some of the most significant reforms to Family Help, Child Protection, Kinship care and safeguarding partners in recent years, implementing the Stable Homes built on love programme.

Figure 35: The Dorset Children Thrive model

This diagram represents the Dorset Children Thrive model. It include the word "Localities" at the centre, surrounded by 12 hexagonal segments connected by lines. Each segment represents a thematic area of support or service:

• Family Support and Advice Line
• Best Start in Life
• Birth to Settled Adulthood
• Children in Care and Children on the edge of care
• Corporate Parenting and Care Leavers
• Best Education for All
• Children Thriving in Education
• Good Care Provision, Safeguarding and Business Support
• Health, Education and SEND Commissioning
• Commissioning Family Help and Young and Thriving

Further resources

• Dorset Council Children, Young People and Families Plan 2023 to 2033

Dorset’s aim is to keep our children close to home – supporting families to stay together where they can, but where children and young people do need care, ensuring that this is family-based or extended family networks where possible. Reducing inequalities for children in care and care leavers is an important aim.

There were 2,978 referrals to social care during 2022/23. As at 31 March 2022/23 there were 2,371 children in need, 304 children subject of a Child Protection Plan (CPP) and 435 children being looked after (29% outside the local authority).

Figure 36: Rate of referrals to children's social care for Dorset and all English unitary authorities

This line graph shows the data rate of referrals to children's social care for Dorset (blue line) and all English unitary authorities (light grey) from 2018/19 to 2023/24. The y-axis represents the referral rate per 10,000 children and the x-axis represents the year. Source: Department for Education.

What are the trends?

The rate of children in need has decreased in Dorset, whilst the South West and England are seeing increases. Numbers, and rates, of children subject of CPP and children looked after has also decreased on the previous year.

Figure 37: Children in need as at 31 March for Dorset and all English unitary authorities

This line graph shows the number of children in need per 10,000 children aged 0 to 17 from 2018/19 to 2023/14 for Dorset (blue line) and all English unitary authorities (light grey). The y-axis represents the referral rate per 10,000 children and the x-axis represents the year. Source: Department for Education.

What are the areas of need?

The proportion of looked after children with special educational needs (SEN support or an EHCP) is 69.8%, which is greater than the average for England.

When a child becomes subject to a CPP, 62% were related to neglect. The percentage whose emotional wellbeing is a cause for concern is above the England average.

Further resources

• Children in Need and Care in Dorset | LG Inform (local.gov.uk)
• Child and Maternal Health - Data - OHID (phe.org.uk)
• Children, Young People and Families' Plan 2023 to 2033 - Dorset Council

In Dorset, 20% of pupils in Dorset state schools have special educational needs (2023/24). This compares to an average of 18% across England. CYP for whom Dorset is responsible but have placed out of the borough are not included in these figures.

Figure 38: Pupils with special educational needs (SEN) as percentage of all school pupils

This line graph compares percentage values for pupils with special education needs (SEN) of all school pupils for England (black line with black circles) and Dorset (blue line with red circles) from 2014/15 to 2022/23. The x-axis shows the years, and the y-axis shows percentages ranging from 0% to 30%. 

What are the trends?

The percentage of pupils with SEN has been steadily increasing, in line with the England trend.

Figure 39: SEN pupils with social, emotional and mental health needs as percentage of all school pupils

This line graph compares percentage values for SEN pupils with social, emotional and mental health needs of all school pupils for England (black line with black circles) and Dorset (blue line with red circles) from 2015/16 to 2021/22. The x-axis shows the years, and the y-axis shows percentages ranging from 0% to 4%. 

What are the areas of need?

At primary school, the main primary needs amongst children with SEN identified are speech, language and communication (38.3%), social, emotional and mental health (19.3%) and learning difficulty (15.4%). The proportion with social, emotional and mental health needs has increased slightly in the latest year.

At secondary age, the proportion with learning difficulty is higher at 25.7%, 22% have social, emotional and mental health needs and 15.6% autistic spectrum disorder.

Primary need in special schools is autistic spectrum disorder (33%), learning difficulty (22.8% moderate, 7.4% severe) and speech, language and communication needs (14.3%).

Dorset has higher proportions of children in need and children looked after with SEN support or EHCP’s compared to the England average (see report below for data).

Further resources

• Local area Special Educational Needs and Disabilities report for Dorset Council | LG Inform
• Child and Maternal Health - Data - OHID (phe.org.uk)

CAMHS assess and treat children and young people up to the age of 18 who are suffering from significant mental difficulties. CAMHS also support families and carers who might need advice or help.

Historically, Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services have been resourced to meet up to 40% of the population need. Transformation plans are in place to enable local services to meet 100% of the need. There are those with lower-level need which could be supported with information, advice and evidence based lower-level interventions.

What are the trends?

The number of children and young people accessing mental health services has been increasing nationally. The pandemic and the following period have seen an unprecedented increase in demand for mental health care.

The increase in referrals has also been seen across the county of Dorset, with 4557 referrals made in 2019/20 pan-Dorset compared to 7550 in 2023/24 (a 65% increase). The majority of referrals in the most recent year were for 11 to 18 year olds.

What are the areas of need?

Children and young people using Child Adolescent and Family Mental Health Services is slightly higher in the most deprived areas than the registered population pan-Dorset. 6.1% of CAFMHS users live in decile 1 (most deprived) compared to 3.5% of the population.

The map below shows emergency hospital admissions for self-harm for both children and adults in Dorset – there are several areas where admission rates are high.

Figure 40: Emergency hospital admissions for intentional self-harm (SAR)

This image of a map of Dorset shows emergency hospital admissions for intentional self-harm. Areas are shaded from light yellow, to orange, to dark brown, indicating admission rates ranging from 0 to 538.6 per 100,000 population. Darker shades represent higher rates of emergency hospital admissions for self-harm. Source: Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) NHS Digital

Further resources

• Mental Health Services Monthly Statistics (National)
• Child and Maternal Health - Data - OHID (phe.org.uk)

Children are offered different vaccines at various stages of childhood to protect against the most serious diseases. Achieving high levels of immunity through the childhood vaccination programme is important to reduce the spread of infection and prevent outbreaks, providing herd immunity (where protection from immunisation programmes extends to individuals who cannot be vaccinated).

Nationally, coverage of all childhood vaccines is down from peak levels reached previously – whilst recent data is fairly stable, there has been a consistent decline over the last decade. In this section we have focused on MMR as this has historically seen lower uptake, and some areas of England have seen a resurgence of measles cases.

What are the trends?

In Dorset LA the proportion of 5 year olds who have received two doses of MMR has declined slightly, and is below 95%. MMR for one dose has been more stable, but the most recent year for 2 year olds has dropped slightly below 95% (not statistically significant).

Figure 41: Population vaccination coverage: MMR for two doses (5 years old)

This line graph titled shows data for population vaccination coverage for MMR in 5 years old from 2010/11 to 2022/23 for Dorset (blue line with yellow circles) and England (black line with black circles). The x-axis represents the years, and the y-axis shows vaccination coverage percentages ranging from 40% to 100%. 

What are the areas of need?

Although coverage is generally good, there is variation in vaccination levels by PCN. Across Dorset county, the % of children who are fully vaccinated at 5 years old varies by roughly 15 percentage points between PCN areas.

Some of our more vulnerable children also have lower immunisation rates – 77% of children in care in Dorset were up-to-date with vaccinations in 2023.

Table 5: 5-year-olds who received a reinforcing dose of Dtap/IPV and 2 doses of MMR

Source: Office for Health Improvement and Disparities and the UK Health Security Agency

Further resources

• Child and Maternal Health - Data - OHID (phe.org.uk)

Nationally, there has been an increase of 4.7% in new STI’s being diagnosed, particularly in gonorrhoea and infectious syphilis whilst chlamydia remains stable. One of the groups where the impact of STIs is greatest is in young people aged 15 to 24 years, amongst which rates of chlamydia are higher than any other age groups.

Children born to teenage mothers have higher rates of infant mortality and are at increased risk of low birthweight which can impact on health outcomes. Teenage mothers are also more likely to experience poor mental health.

What are the trends?

Numbers of syphilis cases in Dorset are low. Diagnoses of gonorrhoea (all ages) has been increasing from 36 per 100,000 in 2019 to 60 per 100,000 in 2023. This is still below the England rate of 149 per 100,000.

There were 417 cases of chlamydia diagnosed in young people aged 15-24 in 2023, a rate of 1,216 per 100,000. This has decreased slightly on the previous year, in line with the England trend. An estimated 20% of the female population aged 15-24 were screened for chlamydia, a similar proportion to previous years.

The rate of conceptions in under 18’s and the number of teenage mothers has continued to reduce. However, there is no significant change in the number of teenage conceptions leading to abortion (60.4% in 2021).

Figure 42: Under 18's conception rate per 1,000

This line graph shows the trend of under of 18's conception rate per 1,000 population from 1998 to 2018 for England (black line and black circles) and Dorset (blue line with green and yellow circles). The x-axis represents the years, and the y-axis ranges from 0 to 60 per 1,000. Dorset begins around the mid-20s per 1,000 in 2009 and also shows a downward trend, reaching a similar level to England by 2018.

What are the areas of need?

Whilst deliveries to teenage mothers is very low in most areas, there is a higher proportion of teenage mothers in Westham ward. There are higher rates of under 18 conceptions in some areas of Weymouth and Portland and Dorchester West. This correlated with some areas in the highest deprivation quintile nationally, but some of more mid-range deprivation.

Figure 34: Deliveries to teenage mothers in percentage

This image of a map shows the percentage of deliveries to teenage mothers across Dorset. Regions are shaded by colours to represent delivery percentages, this includes light grey (0.0% to 0.5%), yellow (0.5% to 1.1%), orange (1.1% to 16%), dark orange (1.6% to 2.0%), dark red (2.0% to 8.7%) or mid grey (N/A). Many areas are marked as N/A, indicating unavailable data. Source: Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), NHS Digital

Further resources

• Child and Maternal Health - Data - OHID (phe.org.uk)
• Sexually transmitted infections and screening for chlamydia in England: 2023 report - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Transport Access

Given the rural environment of Dorset access to transport is an important consideration when planning services. The map below shows the rate of households who have dependent children and no access to a car or van – this is generally higher in town areas which likely have better public transport links, however, is an important consideration if families in these areas need to travel to other parts of Dorset to access services. Access to a GP surgery within 15 minutes public transport or walking is shown in the bottom right – darker areas have better access to public transport / walking.

Figure 35: Rate of no car households per 1,000 households with dependent children

This image of a map shows the rate of no car households per 1,000 households with dependent children for Dorset. Areas of Dorset are shaded in varying shades of blue, with darker shades indicating higher rates of households with children and no car access and lighter shades indicating lower rates. Weymouth and Portland, Swanage, Dorchester and Bridport have higher rates of no car households.

Figure 36: Access to GP surgery by public transport or walking in 15 minutes

This image of a map shows access to GP surgeries by public transport or walking within 15 minutes across Dorset. Areas are shaded in varying tones of purple, with darker shades indicating better accessibility and lighter shades indicating poorer access. The boundaries of Dorset are outlined in red. Swanage, Dorchester, Gillingham and Lyme Regis are areas that have better access to GPs by public transport or walking.

Transition

Young people experiences a range of transitions – including biological and psychological changes, and social transitions. The World Health Organisation identifies 5 key transition points:

• phases of education
• transition into employment
• becoming responsible for their own health
• moving from family living to autonomy
• transition to responsible citizenship

National and local feedback highlights some of the challenges that young people can experience transitioning from child to adult services or experiencing new issues in adulthood such as finding secure and suitable housing.

Neurodivergence

Services often comment on increasing complexity of needs, and one area of need that has been increasing is the diagnosis of Autism and ADHD. Using prevalence data and estimates from literature we estimate across Dorset county:

• approximately 19,200 people age 5 and over with ADHD
• approximately 8,700 people of all ages with Autism

Further details are available in the Pan-Dorset ADHD and Autism Needs Assessment.

Shaping Tomorrow is an AI driven horizon scanning tool that explores various global sources to identify potential future trends and issues. A scan of futures statements about children and young people’s health and wellbeing identified the following potential themes for the future.

Smoke Free Generation

The UK government has announced several key measures aimed at establishing a smoke-free generation and curbing the rising trend of youth vaping. There are plans to introduce a law that will prevent a generation of children from ever being legally sold cigarettes in England. Measures will be implemented to regulate vaping - notably, there has been a definitive move to ban disposable vapes, a popular product among younger users, due to their environmental impact and appeal to minors. Whilst for adult smokers, vaping is a useful tool to help them quit smoking, non-smokers and children and young people should not vape.

Supporting smoke free measures and prevention of vaping for children and young people will be important to support the aims of improving health and reducing the prevalence of smoking to 5% by 2030.

Digital Wellbeing

With the exponential growth of technology and its integration into daily life, future scenarios predict an increased emphasis on digital wellbeing for children and young people. This scenario envisages an environment where schools, parents, and policymakers prioritize the mental and physical health implications of prolonged screen time and social media use. Educational curricula may include mandatory lessons on digital hygiene, cyberbullying awareness, and the importance of offline activities for mental health.

However, technology and social media also offers opportunities to support children and young people’s health – such as increased use of apps for mental health support and integration of artificial intelligence for personalised medicine and treatment plans. Digital tools could be leveraged to engage with young people and to deliver health education remotely and innovatively.

Growing Mental Health Challenges and Responses

The prevalence of mental health issues among children and young people is expected to increase in future scenarios, particularly due to the stresses of modern life and potential global crises. This scenario anticipates a surge in mental health services, including accessible therapy options, support groups facilitated by technology, and community-driven initiatives designed to foster resilience and coping skills in young populations.

Societal attitudes towards mental health are projected to become more open and accepting in the future. This shift could lead to the destigmatization of mental health issues among children and young people, encouraging them to seek help without fear of judgment. An environment of understanding could foster greater peer support and community-based initiatives that prioritize youth mental health

Enhanced Focus on Physical Fitness and Obesity Prevention

A future scenario reveals a coordinated global response to the rising rates of childhood obesity and inactivity. In this scenario, preventive approaches that promote physical activity through urban planning, such as bike-friendly cities and interactive playgrounds, become widespread. Nutrition and physical education in schools might be bolstered by policies that favour active lifestyles, reducing the long-term impact of obesity-related health problems.

Future trends and forecasting needs

Discussions with stakeholders in shaping this JSNA paper identified some topic areas where there are knowledge gaps:

• understanding children’s smoking and vaping behaviours locally
• understanding children with multiple vulnerabilities / in contact with multiple services
• oral health – epidemiology survey has been delivered; data due shortly